Justin Bailey

Justin Bailey

PhD Candidate, Economics
Florida State University

Senior Economist
Florida Legislature

On the job market · 2026–27

About

I am a PhD candidate in Economics at Florida State University, on the academic job market for 2026–27. I work in environmental and resource economics and in law and economics, with applied research spanning land use, energy, and economic history.

Alongside my doctoral work, I serve as a Senior Economist with the Florida Legislature's Office of Economic and Demographic Research, where I develop state revenue forecasts and analyze the fiscal impacts of proposed legislation. I am also completing an M.S. in Mechanical Engineering at Florida State, with a thesis on the economic value of forecast information in hydropower operations.

Research

Job Market PaperLaw & Economics · Resources

The Impact of the Taylor Grazing Act: Heterogeneous Investment Responses and Land Use Change

How bundling grazing rights with private base property redirected investment across the western range, reshaping the structure of production for decades after.

The Taylor Grazing Act of 1934 converted the open range of the American West into grazing rights bundled with private "base" property. I model how this structure directs complementary investment toward the deeded base and test its predictions with a continuous-treatment difference-in-differences design covering 302 western counties from 1910 to 1974. Secure rights capitalized durably into farmland values, by 21 percent at low intensity and 48 percent at high, even as grazing pressure fell. Investment reallocated as the model predicts, tilting from land toward capital as exposure rose. The Act appears to have stabilized cattle production, with the adjustment falling on sheep, most sharply at high exposure, where their methods, historically less dependent on private land, ran up against a qualification built on holding it. The effects persist four decades after the Act, evidence that how rights are structured, not merely whether they exist, shapes production for generations.

Working PaperEnvironment · Information

Graded Warnings and the Structure of Avoidance: Evidence from Florida Red Tide

Whether behavior follows the tiers of a graded hazard warning, and what happens when public attention runs ahead of the warnings.

Many warning systems rank hazards on a scale so that those most at risk can act at lower levels while others respond only at higher ones. Warnings also draw news coverage and public attention, which may blur the distinctions between levels when people find it hard to judge a hazard for themselves. I study both using NOAA's five-level red tide forecasts for Florida Gulf Coast counties from 2014 to 2018, comparing state park visits and hotel occupancy across warning levels while controlling for observed bloom and weather conditions. At lower levels, beach park visits show no detectable change, but gains at inland and non-beach coastal parks imply that roughly 2 to 3 percent of beach visitors shift elsewhere, a share comparable to the proportion of the population at elevated respiratory risk. At High, beach visits fall about 12 percent and hotel occupancy about 5 percent. Southwest Florida in 2018 is the exception. Search activity relative to warnings was at least 2.5 times its level in other bloom years, and hotel occupancy on days without any warning ran about 4.5 percent below normal, close to the full response to a High warning elsewhere.

In ProgressEnvironment · Regulation

Wetland Mitigation Banking: Economic Impacts and Policy Effectiveness

Whether wetland mitigation banks lower the cost of regulatory compliance or chiefly compress its timeline.

In Progresswith Benjamin Emmich · Land & Property

Conservation Land Values: Spillover Effects on Adjacent Private Property

M.S. ThesisMechanical Engineering · Energy

Operational Economics of Forecast Uncertainty in Short-Term Hydropower Scheduling under Operator Risk Preferences

What is the economic value of resolving forecast uncertainty for a price-taking hydropower operator at short-term horizons, and how does that value vary with risk tolerance?

Teaching

Principles of Macroeconomics Florida A&M University
Spring 2023
Principles of Macroeconomics Florida State University95 students · 4/5
Spring 2022
Principles of Macroeconomics Florida A&M University
Spring 2022
Principles of Macroeconomics Florida State University102 students · 4/5
Fall 2021
Economics of State & Local Government Florida State University18 students · 5/5
Summer 2020
Economics of Crime Florida State University21 students · 4/5
Summer 2019
Principles of Microeconomics Florida State University45 students · 4/5
Summer 2018

CV & Contact

Education

  • Ph.D. Economics, FSU — exp. 2027
  • M.S. Mechanical Engineering, FSU — exp. 2027
  • M.S. Economics, FSU — 2018
  • B.B.A. Economics & Finance, MSU — 2016
  • B.A. Mathematics, MSU — 2016

Fields

  • Environmental & Resource Economics
  • Law and Economics
  • Institutional · Energy · Economic History

Honors

  • Hilton Jr. Center Fellowship
  • Undergraduate Research Award, MSU

Technical

StataRPythonMATLABEViewsQGIS / ArcGISSQLLaTeX

References from Carl Kitchens (chair), Shawn Kantor, and Luke Rodgers available on request.

Download full CV ↓